Patrick Carlise, from Paragon Real Estate Group, prepared a rough analysis of the SF real estate deal fall-through rate, by comparing the # of properties going under contract to the # closing sale. He tracked the UC/Solds data with a 1 month gap (factoring in an average 30-day escrow period), comparing, for example, the number of homes that went under contract from February through July, with the number of homes that closed sale in March through August. Not a perfect analysis, but still useful.

As you can see in the chart below, Patrick claims that before the financial markets meltdown of 9/08, the deal fall-through rate was very low: Only about 2% or 1 in 50 deals falling through. Everybody got a loan, appraisals never a problem, little buyer uncertainty.

Jumping forward 12 months, after the meltdown, but at the beginning of the spring recovery, the fall-through rate more than tripled – extremely difficult financing environment, manifold appraisal difficulties, buyer remorse cancellations, and the beginning of short-sales in the city (which, though a relatively small percentage of overall sales still have a very high fall-through rate): 6.7% as a percentage of deals, about 1 in 15 deals falling through, says Patrick.

Then most recently, the fall-through rate drops by a third to about 4.4%, 1 in 23 deals, (still more than twice the percentage in 2008) because though financing is still difficult, it’s not quite as impossible as before (and we’re more prepared for it) and the buyer remorse cancellations have fallen. On the other hand, the number of short sales is increasing, though supposedly they’re getting easier to close than in the past.

SF Deal Fall Through Rates [Patrick Carlisle-Paragon Real Estate Group]

[ Posted in Uncategorized, real estate san francisco ]

SF Home Listings Accepting Offers

February’s Statistics Indicate a Strengthening Market.

Considering February is a short month (with 2 national holidays), market demand was comparable to the highest levels we’ve seen in the past 18 months. February’s number was 50% higher than January, 80% higher than one year ago (during the market’s dark days), and 12% above February 2008.

For more February statistics check out my March Newsletter.

[ Posted in Market Statistics, Newsletter, San Francisco Real Estate ]

Check out the “The World’s Top 10 Ugliest Buildings and Monument.”

Experts at Virtualtourist.com came up with the list and this is what they had to say:

1. Boston City Hall; Boston, Massachusetts

2. Vaillancourt Fountain, Justin Hermin Plaza; San Francisco, California

3. Celebration Town Hall; Osceola County, Florida

4. Habitat 67; Montreal, Quebec, Canada

5. Rock and Roll Hall of Fame; Cleveland, Ohio

6. Experience Music Project and Science Fiction Museum and Hall of Fame; Seattle, Washington

7. Markel Building; Richmond, Virginia

8. Metropolitan Cathedral; Liverpool, England

9. Container City; London, England

10. Ryugyong Hotel; Pyongyang, North Korea

[rateitall.com]

[ Posted in Uncategorized ]

Remodeling, Addition & Replacement Costs & Percentage Recouped Upon Sale

The 22nd annual, Remodeling- Cost vs. Value report has been released for 2009/2010. The report consist of the relationship between remodeling costs and resale value by comparing national and regional averages for 33 popular remodeling projects.

This is what Hanley Wood, LLC had to say about the San Francisco averages.

[ Posted in remodeling ]

One of San Francisco’s iconic Painted Ladies is up for sale.

After 35 years of ownership and an original price tag of $65,000, owner Michael Shannon had decided to downsize from his 4600 sq.ft. home, across from Alamo Square, on Postcard Row.

The home boosts four bedrooms, three and a half baths, plus a garden au pair apartment. It stands 1,000 square feet larger than the other, ’six sisters’, according to Shannon, who has researched the history. The home was constructed as the personal residence of builder Matthew Kavanaugh, who owned all the adjacent lots to the south. After Kavanaugh finished his own place, he built the three matching houses at the far end on spec. When they sold for around $8,000 a piece, Kavanaugh finished the strip, in 1896.

Shannon has set a price tag, just shy of $4 million, at $3,999,000 for his property. He claims it’s based on square footage and neighborhood comparables-which is none.

Even though the home has gained notoriety over the decades through films, tv shows, books, and articles. It’s still going to take a discerning buyer to want to become apart of this special attraction.

[ Posted in real estate san francisco ]