Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Energy costs, interest rates hurt December home sales

The California Association of Realtors (whose 2006 president is Vince Malta from San Francisco) released a report today on December home sales.

“Sales fell last month compared with December 2004’s record-setting pace, prompted by consumers’ concerns about rising interest rates,” said C.A.R. President Vince Malta. “The last few months of 2005 marked the first time since mid-2004 that the fixed-rate mortgage was above 6 percent on a sustained basis and the adjustable-rate mortgage was above 5 percent for three months in a row."

The positive news was that the median price of an existing home in California in December still increased 15.6 percent over a year ago.

"C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in December 2005 was 3.6 months, compared with 2 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate."

“We are experiencing a return to a more balanced market, in line with our expectations, although unsold inventory is still near historical lows, with a 3.6 month supply of homes for sale,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Time on the market also is nearly unchanged at 44 days in December compared with 40 days for the same period last year."

The San Francisco Business Times also has an article covering this report (Thanks, Brett!)

Note to doomsday prophets: No bitching until appreciation drops out of the double-digits. Your stock market still can't touch a 15% average return.

5 Comments:

At January 26, 2006 11:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Note to doomsday prophets: No bitching until appreciation drops out of the double-digits"

Well..."As it stands, year-over-year price appreciation for single family homes in the San Francisco Bay Area now stands at around 8%, well below the double-digit appreciation of the past couple of years." - socketsite

Should we start "bitching" now?

 
At January 26, 2006 11:12 AM, Blogger Matt Lanning said...

If you dig deep enough, you can find a fact to back up your argument for anything you'd wish. The reality is that statewide last year, appreciation was at 15%, and the City of San Francisco was at 15%. The fact that Pleasanton or Silicon Valley or rural Sonoma county built too many tract homes does not concern me or my blog.

I think you'll continue to look for and find reasons to bitch about housing, so go right ahead. It's a free country.

 
At January 27, 2006 2:53 PM, Anonymous Patrick Calahan said...

Doomsday prophets don't bitch - they cheer when appreciation drops.

And just look out if it ever becomes depreciation - party time!

 
At January 27, 2006 10:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Matt - CAR reports a 10.3% year-over-year appreciation rate in the city of San Franciso (http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzU4OTg); darn close to single digits. Where do you get 15%?

 
At January 28, 2006 7:42 AM, Blogger Matt Lanning said...

I pulled the 15% appreciation in San Francisco from MLS data. I'm not sure exactly where CAR gets its info...

One San Francisco agent, David Parry of McGuire Real Estate, has a table which includes the same MLS data from which I pulled my results. He gets a 14.75% appreciation.

 

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