Noe Valley May Hold Its Own, Housing Experts Say
From the September Noe Valley Voice, “A panel of local experts put this [real estate] slowdown into historical perspective and discussed the present and future outlook for housing in Noe Valley at a July 19 forum cosponsored by Friends of Noe Valley and the Noe Valley Democratic Club.”
B.J. Droubi, whose real estate company has been in Noe Valley since 1972, looked further back in history and described three downturns: 1979-81, when interest rates were at an historical high: 1992-97, when there was a recession and the market was flat; and now, when the market is reaching the end of another business cycle.But she ticked off a host of reasons why Noe Valley might be relatively immune to strong fluctuations: “Noe Valley is in the center of the city; it has the most attractive route to the Peninsula and Silicon Valley; it has some of the best housing stock; there’s an incredible diversity of homes and diversity of incomes; it has a great quality of life. Noe Valley holds its value quite well,” she concluded.
There are larger reasons for stability as well. “The economic base here is very stable,” argued Randall Kostick, manager of Zephyr Real Estate. The Bay Area is a gateway to the growing economies of the Pacific Rim and Far East, and there are diverse and relatively strong industries: tourism, finance, high-tech, and biotech, he pointed out.
Kostick said the market cycles had not been all that dramatic here. In the downturn of the early 1990s, when there was as much as a 50 percent decline in housing prices in parts of California, the decline in Noe Valley was only 11 percent, he said. Even in the dot-com bust, when 300,000 jobs were lost in the Bay Area, he added, the housing market didn’t suffer significantly. [more...]
Noe Valley May Hold Its Own, Housing Experts Say [Noe Valley Voice]
The Cost of Living in Noe – September 2006 [Noe Valley Voice]
Significant chunk of unbuilt land in Noe Valley seeks permit [SFHomeBlog]
“Noe Valley is different” sure… funny how everyone has an argument for why their particular locality would suffer less in any downturn.
Anonymous at September 11th, 2006 at 4:32 am ( )Since Noe Valley barely qualifies for City life, it competes for residents with the rest of the Peninsula and would hardly be safe from a down turn.
Anonymous at September 11th, 2006 at 8:21 pm ( )I knew people who might have said that back in 1998 (when Noe was still a somewhat- blue-collar neighborhood), so the only reason you’ll say it now is that (1) you live in the Marina and are afraid to venture south, or (2) you live in the Tenderloin and don’t consider Noe Valley the city because you don’t have to step over needles and human feces on 24th Street.
And whether I like Noe or not (it’s not a neighborhood I would live in for various reasons), I do tend to agree with the quotes in the post about how Noe will very likely hold its value.
Besides, I don’t know anyone who would compare Noe Valley and the Penninsula in the same breath.
At least nobody who has ever actually been in Noe Valley.
Matt Lanning at September 11th, 2006 at 8:29 pm ( )“Noe Valley May Hold Its Own, Housing Experts Say”
Then again, it may not.
I don’t really trust the experts quoted and their rosy predictions. At least one of them essentiallly depends on perpetuating a housing market fantasy. I say no thanks for that opinion.
I think the 11% down from last time could be exceeded this time around – if only because I understand that monthly mortgage payments are 22% higher in California during this cycle top than last time (1990), adjusted for inflation.
And after reading the entire article, I really started laughing. For one, I’d really like to meet just one “stem cell researcher” millionaire who’s paying $6K or $7K a month to be a homeowner in Noe Valley (places which could be rented for less than half that, BTW; and realistically, stem cell research hasn’t created any wealth, for anyone, anywhere yet – unless you count the imposter dotcom-like “stem cell work” supported by some of the venture idiot community).
And as for software guys? Aren’t some of their best prospects in Bangalore these days?
Well, no matter. I just don’t believe there’s an endless supply of “software guys”, “stem cell researchers” and “foreign businessman” who can suppport the Noe market. In part because there’s going to be some outstanding deals in some other places in the City eventually.
And lastly, since I go to each about once a year, from my perspective it does appear that Noe does have a certain San Carlos-like feel to it.
sf jack at September 12th, 2006 at 5:20 am ( )I think your blue collar quote is off by a decade, more like 1988. I moved to SF at the end of 1990 and Noe then was out of my price range.
-Janet Calvin
Anonymous at September 12th, 2006 at 7:08 pm ( )I personally think Noe Valley does have a lot in common with some parts of the Pennisula and these are also highly desirable areas
SFH in places the Burligame and the nice parts of San Mateo are very desirable and always will be
Anonymous at September 15th, 2006 at 12:38 am ( )