The Excruciating Wait for the Condo Lottery Drawing

Yes, it's that time again! The Condo Lottery Drawing is near! February 7th, to be exact.

If you haven't signed up yet, tough luck. The deadline was last Friday.

But for those (thousands of tortured souls) waiting for February 7th, it appears there is a new twist in the drama: according to the SF TIC blog, they will now be doing the drawing digitally, using a computer to randomly draw the numbers, rather than slips of paper and a 40-gallon cowboy hat. And the author of the article, RP, has concerns about how 'random' this drawing might actually be. Or for the conspiracy theorists in the house, how the drawing could actually be rigged or influenced.

Ahhh... San Francisco. If it's not one thing, it certainly is another...

Now I would venture to guess that if you're involved in the 2007 Condo Lottery, you are more than up-to-speed on the process, as well as when you'll find out if you were selected (that would be February 14th, one week after the actual drawing).

But for those that are just getting into the process (perhaps waiting out your owner-occupancy requirement), there is a great PDF with all of the details on this year's lottery here.

Since this is the first year that we'll be excluding units from consideration [PDF] that had multiple evictions or evictions of 'protected' tenants, we'll see if that has shrunk the numbers at all. My guess is that the pool will be larger than ever. And unlike last year, there is very little favoritism for those that may have already been through the lottery 7+ years in a row.

According to a Department of Public Works study published by the Examiner last fall, there were 1652 units that applied for the 2006 lottery, which leaves 1452 that will likely be back for this year's carnival (except those who might have done the aforementioned evictions).

And even if we lived in a vacuum and no more buildings entered the lottery (think of how many new TIC buildings were formed in the past three years!), we're looking at seven or eight years just to clear out the existing applicants.

I really hope that buyers aren't being told that condo conversion is much of an option in their lifetimes right now... Especially considering that most people are only in their homes in SF these days for 2-3 years. That's barely enough time to convert a lottery-exempted two unit building!

I wish all of the applicants the best of luck!

I also expect to see at least 20 of those lottery-winning units to hit the MLS on February 15th...

Condo Conversion in San Francisco [Department of Public Works]
2007 Condominium Lottery Information [Department of Public Works]
Condo Lottery Goes Digital [SF TIC]
Condo permit odds toughen [Examiner]