Haven't forgotten about you...

No, dear friends, I haven't forgotten about you!

I have just decided that it would be boring for me to continue to write the same thing over and over about what the market is doing. And it's actually doing the same thing it does every January/February.

So, in fact, there's nothing new to report. Despite what other media outlets would have you believe (as usual), the market here in SF is flying along at a nice clip. Sure, you can pick the stale fish out of the inventory and talk about how there are some properties that are sitting around, but the reality is that we are seeing DECLINING INVENTORY right now.

We had three weeks of rising inventory after the first of the year, much of which were 'churned' listings that had been on last fall. But after that came three weeks of declining inventory.

If you're a buyer, this is not news to you. There's nothing out there to buy, is there?

Never fear, however, the inventory will be back a bit in April and May, then with a vengeance in June, just after Memorial Day weekend.

But, IMHO, what has changed are the sellers who were speculatively putting their houses on the market. They are gone. They snuck out of the party in late-December, and are going to wait till they see enough market activity to possibly get their 'better-than-my-neighbors' price.

So right now we're just dealing with 'real' sellers. The ones who are selling for reasons that don't involve profit (for the most part). You know, the reasons that people used to sell houses: births, deaths, marriages, divorces, job transfers, life changes...

But with the low inventory, don't expect there to be much bargaining. In fact, I'm seeing a majority of the new listings (from good agents) hitting the market with offer dates. Remember those? You thought that was SOOOO 2005. But when there's nothing to buy and a seller is expecting activity, it's often smart to give the property a couple of weeks of exposure.

Doesn't mean they'll get the moon and the stars, though. We've seen a couple of deals this year where there were 10+ offers, but all were under asking. It does happen.

In the end, as I often say, if you know the RECENT comparable sales (here's a hint: focus on the months in 2006 when there was also low inventory) and you know the market, then you should write offers that reflect the actual value of the property in today's market. Not yesterday's market, not tomorrow's market, but TODAY'S market.

Or you could head to where there is a lot of inventory: SOMA and South Beach. We're not seeing many multiple offers in lofts or high rises, unless you're talking about very special properties.

I'm sure you'll hear from me soon, too.

The 'Supes are just about done calling for the mayor's head, and will likely be back to their usual business of blocking affordable housing, or the sales of large buildings in the Mission...

In the meantime, it's snowing in the mountains (finally!) and I'm going skiing!