We are not seeing 2005 bidding mania where prices are premium at per sq ft and still getting multiple offers above asking. That market is gone. If a proerty is getting multiple offers now, its because (gasp) the realtors are doing a good job of pricing the property just below the current market to drive interest.

See here: http://tinyurl.com/2owxxu for a current such example.

A.

I can’t speak for anyone else, but although it might seem like I only focus on favorable information, I just choose not to post the sensational journalism that drives most media outlets. When I completely disagree with something that was written (based on personal experience and/or data), I see no reason to promote someone else’s agenda.

I try to post the realities of the market as I see them.

And you don’t see that much negative news from me because I just don’t see the market as negative.

You may argue that if you wish, but until you are actually working in real estate and seeing the transactions happen, a non-agent couldn’t understand how stable this market really is (or appears to be from my standpoint).

I don’t pretend to know anything about the future of the market, but trends have been very consistent in my tenure in SF, and until I’m proven completely wrong about something, I’d like to think that the information I provide would allow a savvy homebuyer or homeseller to make smarter choices than they would have otherwise.

If you have been reading for a while, you know how much respect I have for the UCLA/Anderson forecasters. They’re as sensational as the media.

As for the ‘low value/return’ comment. I just don’t believe that. Sure, you can find buyers who made bad decisions that were advised by bad agents, or sellers who just don’t get what it takes to sell in this town, but in general, this market is solid.

All of my clients who bought in 2005 could more-than-likely have sold at a profit in 2006, and all of my clients who bought last year could more-than-likely sell at a profit right now. And at a higher return than they would have gotten in a more traditional/stable investment.

Thanks for reading!

http://tinyurl.com/2c33wk

The last 30 to 20 minutes refer to fundamentals that explain why there’s may be a slowdown.

Best,
Jimmy

Appreciate your updates on housing in SF. I can see you are here to inform not just regarding the housing market, but also the neighborhood projects/plans (good or bad) that are going on in SF. I check back often to see what new happenings are going on in SF.

I was in the market for a condo in the peninsula area for a while now without pulling the trigger as I wish to stay within my means and avoid buying with the expectation that appreciation will bail me out.

My question is: I see how real estate agents respond to media posturing. But what have you heard from real estate professionals in response to additional housing data out there? To me, it seems not all, but many people in the real estate business focus selectively on favorable data and voice their concerns/suggestions.
How does the real estate industry respond to fundamentals that indicate real estate is a “low value/return investment now”.

I don’t expect you to go through this hour long presentation, but I found it very informative – especially the last 30mins regarding the housing bubble. It is from Senior Economist at UCLA Anderson School of Business:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2640239019877885520&q=housing+bubble+boom&pr=goog-sl

Appreciate any of your feedback and comments.

Best,
Jimmy

All I’m trying to do is to inject some reality into this discussion.

anonymous #312,221 (February 28, 2007 10:43 AM):

Thanks for the philosophy.

Now I have a couple of questions:

1) Just how did the local economy do after commercial rents hit their peak in 2000?

2) $1 trillion of Adjustable Rate Mortgages will reset in 2007 in the United States – do you expect this could have an impact on the local economy?

I agree with what you say. But I have posted these numbers to give consumers some perspective about why the market is suddenly like 2005 all over again.

I see lots of trends year-over-year for the years that I’ve been in the market, and they continue to play out fairly regularly.

But as we continue to see, the market has a life of its own, and very few people would have been able to predict the strength of the market in February 2007.

And I appreciate your mention of the commercial market. It does provide a bit of an indicator, relative to the health/strength of the economy, as well as the buying power of consumers who may now be more gainfully employed than they were last year.

It is better to look at the over all health of a particular buisness economy in the area – commercial rents are inching up to their 2000 highs as an example.

You’ve shown your moments of fair-mindedness, but for whatever reason you’ve gotten a little bitter over the holidays.

I’m not trying to sell anyone on this market or any other market. The fact has been, and continues to be, that there are people who are going to transact real estate in this town no matter the economics. And all I’m doing is helping people who will be doing the buying and selling make smarter decisions.

And if you are coming into this market from somewhere else (pretty much anywhere else, other than resort towns like Aspen), this is a very fast-moving market.

Or to quote your definition above, “Marked by excited activity or energy: a hot week on the stock market.”

I really don’t care whether people listen to, or agree with, what I have to say.

I call it as I see it, and for more than a few people, that has made a positive difference in their real estate decisions.

And that’s all I am here to do.

The “Map of Misery”

“The Percentage of New and Refinanced Mortgages Into Loans With Payment Options”

http://www.businessweek.com/common_ssi/map_of_misery.htm

Or:

http://tinyurl.com/laz9y

******

Nope – no affordability issues here at all.

Parents and rich uncles everywhere available for 20% downpayments. And let’s not forget the foreigners, boomers from the Heartland, and Googlers – just dying to be throwin’ their cash around.

Never mind what fundamentals say: that wage growth has been flat to barely perceptible, that population is down and inventory (imagined, public, private, otherwise, what have you…) is UP.

I’m tellin’ you, this market is solid!

If not outright “hot!”

I was part of the supply/demand party last year. I still believe!

Cheers,
Shawn