CNBC Powerlunch Road Shows hit Hyde St Pier Friday and the Trouble with Newspaper Headlines
My favorite CNBC news anchor Bill Griffeth, made an in person appearance taping his segment of Power Lunch from the Hyde Street Pier in San Francisco last Friday where he interviewed our very own Sam Zuckerman from the Chronicle.
In the first few minutes Bill queried Sam about Friday’s front page headline from the business section of the Chronicle; Bay Area home sales plunge to 15-year low. When asked by Bill if it was an indication that we are feeling the same chill from the credit crunch as the rest of the country, Mr. Zuckerman goes onto report that according to the real estate agents* ‘it’s a tale of two markets, the suburbs are hurting – go into the core of San Francisco and Marin and prices are up’.
Now I, as do many of my colleges in the business, have a big problem with the media coverage on real estate in San Francisco. My primary problem is that it is misleading. Notice the sentence where it states ‘A total of 7,299 houses and condos changed hands in the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area last month, down 25 percent from 9,713.’
Kelly Zito pulled her information for the article directly from Data Quick’s Site and it is factually correct, but when thin slicing a headline and scanning the print most people are left with the impression prices are flat or down in San Francisco. The reality is the paper is quoting numbers on 9 vastly different markets merged together. When one reads a sentence that declares sales in the San Francisco Bay Area are down, written by the San Francisco Chronicle, one is left with a very different impression than if it read closer to the truth which is the Santa Clara Bay Area is down by 25% (on virtue of the fact that Santa Clara county has the most transactions recorded and thereby sets the median).
To see how this affects Jon Q. Public I defer to a recent email plea from a fellow agent who was looking for recent multiple offer stories to give to her client who absolutely did not believe that properties were still selling in multiple offers. Which is true in District 9 (Soma etc) where for the time being there is plenty of inventory to choose from, but decidedly untrue for most decently priced Single Family Homes and condos where there is limited supply: aka most of the rest of the city.
Labels: newspaper

5 Comments:
I agree. the news media is simplictic in their reporting because the issues are too complex for the genral public, and being too simplistic, they always miss the mark. They give a wide view that never really gets the stroy in all it's complexity, and you have pointed out the complexity oif the SF real esate market.
The stages of real estate denial:
1. Real estate never goes down.
2. Real estate in California never goes down.
3. Real estate in the Bay Area never goes down.
4. Real estate in the West Bay never goes down.
5. Real estate in San Francisco never goes down.
6. Real estate in good neighborhoods of San Francisco never goes down.
7. Real estate in Pacific Heights never goes down.
8. The real estate market has bottomed out…
so, Observer, you're going to run out and find me those one or two properties that sold poorly to back up your position that real estate in your stages #5/6/7 has gone down?
or are you just bitter?
do you have anything factual to back up your comments beyond #4?
and have we (on this blog) ever discussed real estate outside of your stages #5/6/7?
I'm guessing that you're just running from blog to blog, posting your prognostications of the coming apocolyspe, without a clear understanding of these local markets.
As always, thanks for reading.
No, #5,#6,#7 haven't happened yet.
I'm just amused that the same people who three years ago assured us that real estate never goes down, two years ago assured us that real estate never goes down in California, and a year ago assured us that real estate in the Bay Area never goes down, now assure us that a forcefield surrounds the City which will shield it from the chaos in the credit markets.
Given your post, we have clearly moved from phase #4 to phase #5. I think that prices will start sliding in Hunter's Point and similar SF neighborhoods soon, and we will transition from phase #5 to phase #6. How long we can stay at #6 remains to be seen.
The real estate boom-and-bust cycle is still on the way down but it is not yet the time to buy (at least not in Seattle). The time to buy will be when the rent you can get, every month, for a property is 1% of the price you pay for the property. For instance, if you buy a condo for $250,000 you must get a rent of $2,500. If you stick as closely as possible to this "golden rule" greed will not suck you into dangerous speculation that has caused many people to lose their shirts recently. For more details on how to run the numbers see my book "How to Invest in Condominiums
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