San Francisco's A Buyers' Market – Update

by Meredith Martin | 5 comments so far
Dec
11
I revisted my chart from ‘SF Officially a Buyers’ Market’ post from last week due to several late reported sales which have altered, albiet slightly, the numbers originally reported.  I also  was reminded by a fan of the blog that it might be helpful to put those numbers in some kind of perspective; so I have included a reference to the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) in 2007 for comparison purposes.

As you will see, MSI in many areas of the city, has doubled or tripled from one year ago.

In light of the recent Buyer’s market, the NY Times recently published an article suggesting now might be the time to jump back in. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/yourmoney/06money.html?em. 

Of course I cannot say we are witnessing the bottom of the real estate market, that unfortunately is reserved for hindsight.  My personal opinion is we are most likely bouncing along what is close to a bottom, and probably will continue to do so until about June of 2009, (most recessions last an average of 18 months).   

What I can say is there is a huge benefit to negotiating with sellers now, while there is still so much uncertainty about the economy, and there appears to be quite a bit of evidence there is a fair amount of money sitting on the sidelines.  When that money does finally start to flow, it likely will pick up steam fairly quickly.   

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 6:41 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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5 Responses to “San Francisco's A Buyers' Market – Update”

  1. Are you really predicting a house price bottom in June of 2009… to coincide with the end of the recession?

    I believe the bottom could be long and wide, as prices will bounce around a low point for a number of years. It will be hard to miss.

    In the last real nationwide recession, GDP turned upward in early 1991 after initially going negative in late 1990.

    In San Francisco, house prices began to turn upward in some neighborhoods by 1995.

    This recession is different, no doubt (for one, it’s global), but will the end result on local houses, at least chronologically, be much different?

    *****

    And that NY Times article is simply a realtor puff piece!

    Please see this from Dean Baker (Center for Economic and Policy Research) and others; particularly “Appendix Table 2″:

    “The Changing Prospects for Building Home Equity

    An Updated Analysis of Rents and Housing in 100 Metropolitan Areas

    October 2008″

    http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/Changing_Prospects_for_Building_Home_Equity_2008_10.pdf

    Or:

    http://tinyurl.com/5bsey2

    sf jack at December 15th, 2008 at 5:41 pm ( )

  2. Hey Meredith,

    It is nice to hear about San Francisco's real estate updates. I too a real estate investor, I had invested there in San Francisco & I have noticed that there is slight down in real estate industry over there & then I have jumped to panama real estate industry, It rocks buddy

    real estate at December 15th, 2008 at 7:34 pm ( )

  3. Looks like the Sub-Prime crisis really hasn’t had too much of an effect over all to the San Franciso market, as you started on September 25, 2007. However the Alt-A are just beginning there interest rate resets. The collapse of the San Franciso market is just beginning.

    Anonymous at December 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm ( )

  4. So, how will the house price bottom affect the rental market? Do you have clients looking to rent a house that approach you because they want to look around and do some research while the market is good for buyers?

    Lindsey at Rentals.com at January 10th, 2009 at 3:49 pm ( )

  5. Hi Matt. It’s OK, you don’t have to pony up the $50.

    Lou Minatti at January 21st, 2009 at 1:01 am ( )

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