Current Trends in San Francisco Real Estate – April Edition
At current market trends, over the next month:*
- 1400 active house & condo listings will be joined by 600 new listings.
- 1 in 7 or 8 of those listings will accept an offer to purchase.
- 1 in 8 will expire or be withdrawn from the market (didn’t sell).
- 1 in 4 will reduce its asking price.
- 75 active bank-owned (REO) homes will be joined by 45 new REO listings:
- 1 in 3 will accept offers.
Of the listings that do accept offers, 1 in 3 or 4 will come back on market because the purchase fell through — typically due to financing difficulties, property condition issues or buyer remorse.
Of the house and condo listings that SOLD in the first 2.5 months of 2009:**
- 1 in 4 accepted offers within about 15 days of going on market, i.e. almost immediately. Of these, the houses averaged a sales price of about 1% over asking price, while condos averaged about 4% below asking.
- Those accepting offers after 45 to 75 days on market sold at an average of 3% to 4% below last asking price and 7% to 10% below original list price.
- Those accepting offers after 105 days on market sold, on average, 4% to 5% below last asking price and 14% to 18% below original price.
No matter how long a home was for sale, it still sold, on average, within 3% to 5% of the last asking price, even as — with price reductions — the discount off the original price grew significantly larger as time passed. The vast majority of buyers and buyers’ agents will NOT make an offer until they perceive the property’s asking price to be within 5% of “market value” (i.e. what they’re willing to pay).
*All numbers are approximate; neither TIC sales nor non-MLS new-development sales are included.
** For SF house and condo sales reported to MLS by 3/17/09. City districts with high foreclosure rates, as well as confidential sales and ultra high-end sales were excluded to avoid distorting general market statistics.
Current Trends in SF Real Estate 3.2.09 [SFHomeBlog]
