Archive for the ‘condominiums’ Category

San Francisco Market Overview: September 2015

 

September is historically the month San Francisco sees the greatest number of new listings come on the market, and this year it hasn’t disappointed! Since the 1st of the month, more than 800 single-family homes and condos have hit the market, blowing last year’s count out of the water. Further sweetening the situation for prospective home buyers, there are more condos for sale now than any time in the past two years and the most sub-million dollar single-family homes we’ve seen all year.

While median prices for both property types have remained consistently above $1,000,000 for the past seven months, the month-over-month rate of appreciation has cooled recently leading some economists to believe the market is leveling off. Still, there are plenty of buyers out there and the key to home values will continue to be the pace of job growth. On that note, employment is at a record high in San Francisco, and the East Bay (where many people priced out of SF are already putting increasing pressure on the housing market) is in for some major job growth in the coming months, years and decades.

Uber’s recent purchase of the former Sears building in downtown Oakland could prove a huge boon for the city. Aside from the estimated 600 new residents it will bring to the East Bay, it could open the floodgates for startups to establish headquarters in the area. Additionally, Berkeley has a billion-dollar real estate pipeline — one of the largest building booms in its 147-year history — that’ll bring jobs and residents to the area over the next 40 years. If conventional wisdom is correct, the real estate market in the East Bay will be heating up — way up!

A recent study by rental website Zumper found that for every $1 billion in venture capital injected into a local economy, 1-bedroom rents will increase $69 per month, and 2-bedroom rents will increase $99 per month. In San Francisco, $1,069 or 33% of a median 1-bedroom rent can be attributed to this stimulation. As housing prices accelerate around the Bay Area, it should become increasing clear that the housing crunch is a regional issue rather than a strictly San Francisco one, and the solution to it will be best achieved in a coordinated effort.

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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Think Long-Term: Best Performing San Francisco Real Estate Investments

 

This past week, 2470 Broadway in Pacific Heights came on the market in San Francisco with a $6,995,000 list price. Purchased by the current owner in 1976 for $176,000, this price represents a nearly 10% average annual appreciation. It’s a story not dissimilar to that of the former Alioto mansion at 2898 Vallejo, purchased in 1973 for $225,000 and sold in 2013 for $11,700,000. These long-term real estate holdings with appreciation rates well above the San Francisco average left me wondering: Which neighborhood (and what property type therein) is the best long-term investment, historically?

Comparing neighborhood median sales price data for single-family homes and condos/co-ops/TICs, respectively, from 1993 (the earliest available data from the San Francisco MLS) to 2015 YTD medians and calculating the average annual appreciation from January 1, 1993 to September 25, 2015 revealed some surprising findings. North Panhandle (11.03%), Hayes Valley (10.94%), Inner Mission (10.31%), Haight Ashbury (10.05%) and Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights (9.81%) represent the five top-performing single-family home markets in San Francisco during that period. With regard to condos/co-ops/TICs, Downtown (10.19%), Haight Ashbury (9.67%), Anza Vista (9.29%), Inner Mission (8.87%) and Mission Dolores (8.87) compose the five top-performing markets since 1993.

It’s been said that San Francisco real estate is a better investment than the stock market. With nearly half the markets analyzed having average annual appreciation above 7% — the assumed long-term average annual return of a diversified stock portfolio — it appears to be true! Check out this CNN Money calculator and see how your home’s appreciation compares, and click below for neighborhood data.

 

northwest

Central Richmond, Inner Richmond, Jordan Park / Laurel Heights, Lake Street, Outer Richmond, Seacliff, Lone Mountain

central west

Golden Gate Heights, Outer Parkside, Outer Sunset, Parkside, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Inner Parkside

southwest

Lake Shore, Merced Heights, Pine Lake Park, Stonestown, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Ingleside Heights, Ingleside, Oceanview

twin peaks west

Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, St. Francis Wood, Miraloma Park, Forest Hill Extension, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park, Sunnyside, West Portal

upper market

Glen Park, Haight Ashbury, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks, Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights, Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights, Mission Dolores

central north

Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, Western Addition, Alamo Square, North Panhandle

north

Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow

northeast

Downtown, Financial District / Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, Russian Hill, Van Ness / Civic Center, Telegraph Hill, North Waterfront, Tenderloin

central east

Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South of Market, Yerba Buena, South Beach, Central Waterfront / Dogpatch

southeast

Bayview, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Outer Mission, Visitacion Valley, Portola, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Hunters Point, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Little Hollywood

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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To Buy or to Rent: That is the Question

top-10-one-bedroom-rents-in-september-2015

Unless you are fortunate to live in a rent controlled building, you may have noticed your monthly rent rise dramatically in recent years. Checking in at $3,530 per month, the median rent for a one-bedroom has been the highest in the country for six months following a 13.5% rise last year (and up as much as 29.2% in Noe Valley). For many renters, what they pay out every month could easily be a mortgage payment on a comparable place– the monthly Principal + Interest on a $1,000,000 home is $3819.32, assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage fixed at 4%. As of today, there is more than 330 single-family homes and condos/TICs/lofts that are Active on the MLS listed for under $1,000,000.

Plugging in local San Francisco data (August 2015 sales figures) to the New York Times’ Rent vs. Buy calculator reveals some compelling numbers. Buying a condominium at August 2015’s $1,045,000 median sale price or a single-family home at the $1,225,444,000 median is a better financial decision even if you could rent for free!

 

San Francisco condominium Rent vs. Buy results:

condo

San Francisco single-family home Rent vs. Buy results:

home

 

The assumptions I made in the above calculations are as follows:

  • Purchase price: $1,045,000 for condos, $1,225,444 for single-family homes
  • Length of time in home: 5 years
  • Mortgage Rate: 4%
  • Down payment: 20%
  • Length of Mortgage: 30 years
  • Home price growth rate: 13.3% for condos, 20.0% for single-family homes (12-month average, the NYT calculator maxes out at 15%)
  • Rent growth rate: 13.5% (median one-bedroom increase in 2014)
  • Investment rate of return: 7% (approx. long-term average annual ROI of stocks)
  • Inflation Rate: 2%
  • Property tax rate: 1.19%
  • Marginal tax rate: 28%
  • Taxes filed on a Joint Return
  • Costs of buying a home: 3% (approx. closing costs)
  • Costs of selling a home: 8% (approx. closing costs + marketing + customary 5% commission to brokers)
  • Maintenance/renovation: 1%
  • Homeowner’s insurance: 0.1% (approx. $50-$100+ per month depending on property type)
  • Monthly utilities: $100
  • Monthly common fees: $600 for condos, $0 for single-family homes
  • Common fees deduction: 0%
  • Security Deposit: 1 month
  • Broker’s fee: 0%
  • Renter’s Insurance: 0.1%

 

San Francisco condominium median price growth, 2005 to present:

San Francisco single-family home median price growth, 2005 to present:

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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A Broker Tour for the Record Books

 

With 309 new listings on the San Francisco Association of REALTORS® Broker Tour yesterday, there was no shortage of properties to see. In fact, including repeat properties, the Tour consisted of a total 477 properties — That’s more new and total listings than there’s been on any given Tour in years! Of the homes I previewed for clients and market research, here are three of my favorites:

1. 4173 Cesar Chavez Street, Noe Valley

From the MLS: Located on a rare cul-de-sac, this 4 bedroom, 3 full bath, 2 half bath house is the definition of modern luxury living and refined design. With 3 bedrooms on the top level and an Aupair suite on the entry level, its cohesive layout exhibits custom millwork throughout. The residence features a custom kitchen, library, dining area, and great room that opens to a stunning outdoor seating area and fireplace. The home is completed with a Speakeasy wet bar, media room, 2 car side-by-side garage, an elevator, 3 fireplaces (2 indoor, 1 outdoor), 3 decks (front deck, master suite deck, roof deck), and picturesque views of Downtown. The attention to detail validates that no expense was spared in the design and construction of this modern masterpiece. List Price: $4,850,000

Does your dream home include high-end finishes? If so, this one’s for you!

2. 458 Ashbury Street, Haight Ashbury

From the MLS: Reimagined Victorian completely rebuilt retaining period influences infused w/contemporary style, a blend of tradition & chic modernity. Graciously scaled rooms-large living room, family room w/dramatic accent wall, combined dining room & kitchen. Coved ceilings, molding, rosettes w/exquisite modern lighting & distinctive wall coverings enliven the spaces. Kitchen w/11-ft marble island, custom cabinetry, premium appliances, wet bar. Sizable deck w/built-in seating. Grand staircase w/custom iron-work. 2nd level: master suite w/sitting area, walk-in closet w/washer/dryer. Luxurious master bath w/dual sink vanity, soaking tub, walk-in shower, Calacatta Oro. 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Top level: 2 bedrooms w/own bathrooms. Lower level: Exercise/media room, bathroom, sauna, 2 bonus rooms, storage, 3-car garage. List Price: $3,500,000

A shout out to BIRCH + TAYLOR for the gorgeous staging! According to CurbedSF, this home is one of the most intact Victorians on the market — and I’d have to agree. Stunning!

3. 3876 Clay Street, Presidio Heights

From the MLS: Stunning, top floor, two level ‘house-like’ condominium in a two-unit building, Built in 1909, thoroughly remodeled by current owner, under the guidance of interior designer Martha Angus. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths + 1 half bath with grand master suite. Living room and formal dining room with fireplaces. Spacious, sun-lit gourmet kitchen with eat-in banquet. Powder room, and separate laundry room. Two car (tandem) deeded parking, with tradesman entrance with interior access. Spectacular outdoor terrace (deeded to unit for owner’s exclusive use). Selected by 7×7 Magazine as the featured home residence in their annual ‘Design Issue’. List Price: $4,798,000

No need to stage this place — all the furniture, fixtures and artwork belong to the owner whom I met while touring the property. CurbedSF recently ran a story on the home which you can read here.

 

RealtyTrac says October 8th is the best day for home buyers in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metro area, when buyers have paid an average of 25 percent less than a home’s value on that particular day over the past 15 years. Certainly with the flood of new inventory in San Francisco, we may see bidding wars ease up and perhaps the beginning of price stabilization. What are you waiting for? Get out there and write some offers!

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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Updated: New Condo Developments in San Francisco

 

 

 

 

For more information on any of the new condominium developments now selling or under construction, please contact me.

Are you getting my monthly San Francisco newsletter? You can subscribe here.

 

Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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