Archive for the ‘San Francisco Real Estate; real estate trends’ Category

Where Renting is Most Expensive in San Francisco

For those of us living in San Francisco, it’s no surprise the price of housing is a big concern both locally and nationwide. San Francisco in fact has been the country’s most expensive rental market (for one bedroom units) since August 2014 when our City by the Bay claimed the top spot over New York City.

Thanks to our friends at Trulia, here’s a breakdown of the San Francisco’s neighborhoods where rents are highest:

San Francisco Neighborhoods with the Most Expensive 1-Bedroom Rentals

#

Neighborhood

 % of 1-Bedrooms Renting for $3,000+

Median Rent

1

Fisherman’s Wharf

82.80%

$3,500

2

Mission

78.8%

$3,500

3

Pacific Heights

73.8 %

$3,600

4

Castro

71.9%

$3,500

5

Potrero Hill

71.7%

$3,600

6

Telegraph Hill

70.0%

$3,325

7

Mission Dolores

69.0%

$3,500

8

Cow Hollow

68.8%

$3,350

9

Hayes Valley

68.7%

$3,500

10 

Marina

68.3%

$3,348

 

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You may recall the story we published in September where we analyzed the financial question of Buying vs Renting and revealed this gem: Buying… is a better financial decision even if you could rent for free! Despite early indicators showing our local market could be leveling off, don’t expect prices to decrease unless we see an actual decrease in demand. 

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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Let the Game of Chicken Begin!

 

We’ve seen more inventory since the fall selling season began than we have in several years in the city, with the excellent properties still moving at a record pace, and the just decent properties taking longer to sell.

What happens now to the fully respectable but possibly not excellent properties is a game of who will blink first– the buyers or the sellers. Will the sellers reduce their price, pull it from the market and re-list in spring, just rent it as every seller who doesn’t have to sell threatens to do, or employ the new trick du jour of dramatically dropping the price in order to inspire hopefully a new round of multiple bids?

The latest trick du jour seems to be the most successful, thus most popular tactic used to move properties that previously sold in a 2 week period. A dramatic price reduction (often below what the seller will actually take) is the hook to get fence-sitting buyers off their wait and see morals and actually take a stab at writing an offer. Once that hardest part, putting pen to paper so to speak, is done it’s just a matter of counters back and forth before we see who is going to do the blinking. Sometimes it’s the seller, often times it’s the buyer, and many times that is determined by how many buyers are enticed off the fence.

As we move into the final months of the year, look for more price reductions, far fewer listings, and a lot of withdrawals of properties from the market. Those withdrawn may be re-listed in the new year, but just as likely could be lost to the vast rental pool and disappear for a year or so.

I still maintain this is an excellent time to shop for a property, with the buyers bold enough to actually write an offer (below asking if the property warrants it) being the most successful. Come the new year, it remains to be seen if the steady drum roll of property appreciation will continue, but if history serves then spring will likely see a new round of price valuations hitting new highs.

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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San Francisco Market Overview: October 2015

 

As we begin the last quarter of the year, change is in the air!

First, a surge of new listings hit the market last month — there’s more inventory in San Francisco now than there’s been at any time this year. Just over 40% of those properties for sale are priced under $1M (on par with Zillow’s recent valuation of homes across the city — see how your neighborhood stacks up). Certainly buyer demand is persisting, however competition for any given property is generally letting up… for now. The consensus among forecasters is that prices in the Bay Area will rise through 2016 with regional employment playing a critical role.

Second, there seems to be a shift in buyer demand as higher priced homes linger and take price reductions while relatively more affordable ones attract interest. The median sales price of properties in SF fell slightly last month to $1,150,000 and the number sold is down dramatically year-over-year. To further this point, the generally less expensive East Bay, for example, is experiencing an increase in number of sales from last year, and median prices in some cities — like Berkeley — continue to climb. [Those in SF’s ultra-high-end market still have plenty to choose from including these 3 Most Expensive.]

From now thru the end of the year — before the Spring 2016 selling season begins — should prove an opportune time for prospective buyers to make a move, and it may well be the best time to borrow money in recorded history.




 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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The New Mansions of Noe Valley: Part I

 

For many San Franciscans, talk of the city’s mansions conjures images of the so-called “Prestige North” — the trophy properties of Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights and Sea Cliff which are historically the most expensive single-family homes San Francisco has to offer. Indeed, when 2701 Broadway sold earlier this year for $31M it became the highest priced sale of the year. Nonetheless, there’s been a remarkable shift in the number of multi-million dollar home sales in recent years to the city’s more southerly neighborhoods.

Between 2012 and 2014, the number of single-family homes sales $3M+ in Noe Valley increased more than 800%; if the eight homes currently listed [we’ll examine some of these in The New Mansions of Noe Valley: Part II] trade at or above listing price by the end of 2015, that figure will reach 900% over the four year period. See this chart of $3M+ Noe Valley home sales over the past decade:

 

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Earlier this year, Noe Valley saw its record-setting most expensive home sale ever, 625 Duncan (March 2014), matched by 553 Elizabeth (June 2015) — each sold for $7M. [Note: 625 Duncan was then partially gutted and re-sold in April 2015 for $4.4M.] That same month, Noe got its new next priciest sale at 471 Hoffman, sold for $6.7M. In all, 19 $3M+ single-family homes in Noe Valley have sold YTD — compare that to 23 in Pacific Heights.

At various times over the past decade, the average $/sqft sales price in Noe Valley has exceeded that of Pacific Heights, both with consideration to all property types sold and also individually to homes, condos, and TICs leading to some dramatic comparisons between the two neighborhoods. In 2013 it was said “Pacific Heights is cheap compared to Noe Valley” with regard to particular $/sqft figures, and last year it was declared “Noe is the new Pac Heights” following a measured shift of dominance in the number $2M+ single-family home sales from the “Prestige North” to the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys.

With regard to median sales prices for single-family homes, Noe Valley led the whole of San Francisco in surpassing the $1M mark by almost five years. Not since May 2009 has the neighborhood seen a six-figure median for houses, and today close to 95% of all properties there — houses, condos and TICs — are valued at $1M+ according to this Zillow report.

 

In fact, having grown from 54.26% in January 2010, the number of $1M+ properties as a percentage of all housing stock in Noe Valley today is the 3rd highest in the city, trailing Inner Sunset (95.67%) and Central Richmond (95.64%). Pacific Heights comes in 4th at 88.24%.

 

 

While neither Noe Valley nor Pacific Heights could claim the highest average $/sqft for houses in September 2015, the spread between their prices — $1,334/sqft and $1,509/sqft, respectively — is relatively small. And while Noe is only one of a handful of neighborhoods in the southern part of San Francisco to experience some of the highest average annual compound appreciation rates in the long term, none of the others come close to touching the “Prestige North” — in terms of ultra-luxury house prices, average $/sqft figures, median single-family home prices, percentage of $1M+ properties, number of $3M+ homes sales or otherwise.

 

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With Noe Valley’s easy access to Silicon Valley, it’s proven to be a desirable area for wealthy tech-employed homebuyers. Furthermore, the neighborhood’s limited capacity for infill luxury housing developments means that any existing structure is an appealing candidate for renovation, expansion and/or rebuild for 21st century sensibilities. Looking at the $3M+ single-family homes sold this year as well as ones currently on the market, it’s evident the neighborhood is experiencing a wave a mansionization every bit as worthy of “Prestige” as Pacific Heights.

In The New Mansions of Noe Valley: Part II, we’ll take a look at some of these properties and offer a professional’s analysis of the draws for these mansions that tech built. Stay tuned!

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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San Francisco Market Overview: September 2015

 

September is historically the month San Francisco sees the greatest number of new listings come on the market, and this year it hasn’t disappointed! Since the 1st of the month, more than 800 single-family homes and condos have hit the market, blowing last year’s count out of the water. Further sweetening the situation for prospective home buyers, there are more condos for sale now than any time in the past two years and the most sub-million dollar single-family homes we’ve seen all year.

While median prices for both property types have remained consistently above $1,000,000 for the past seven months, the month-over-month rate of appreciation has cooled recently leading some economists to believe the market is leveling off. Still, there are plenty of buyers out there and the key to home values will continue to be the pace of job growth. On that note, employment is at a record high in San Francisco, and the East Bay (where many people priced out of SF are already putting increasing pressure on the housing market) is in for some major job growth in the coming months, years and decades.

Uber’s recent purchase of the former Sears building in downtown Oakland could prove a huge boon for the city. Aside from the estimated 600 new residents it will bring to the East Bay, it could open the floodgates for startups to establish headquarters in the area. Additionally, Berkeley has a billion-dollar real estate pipeline — one of the largest building booms in its 147-year history — that’ll bring jobs and residents to the area over the next 40 years. If conventional wisdom is correct, the real estate market in the East Bay will be heating up — way up!

A recent study by rental website Zumper found that for every $1 billion in venture capital injected into a local economy, 1-bedroom rents will increase $69 per month, and 2-bedroom rents will increase $99 per month. In San Francisco, $1,069 or 33% of a median 1-bedroom rent can be attributed to this stimulation. As housing prices accelerate around the Bay Area, it should become increasing clear that the housing crunch is a regional issue rather than a strictly San Francisco one, and the solution to it will be best achieved in a coordinated effort.

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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