SFHomeBlog.com - A San Francisco Real Estate Blog » San Francisco Real Estate; real estate trends

A Tale of Two SF Septembers

Meredith Martin — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:36:21 +0000

September 2007 ~ September 2009

4,073 ~ Properties for Sale ~ 3,226 (20% less)
447 ~ Under Contract ~ 648 (45% more)
447 ~ Sold ~ 492 (10% more)
$761,000 ~ Median Sales Price ~ $641,000 (16% less)
38 ~ Days on Market ~ 53

Which means even though there’s less inventory to choose from (contrary to popular belief), month’s supply of inventory is down nearly 50% from Sept 2007, Buyers are taking their sweet time – evidenced by the significant increase in average days on the market.

How Many Listings Go Pending Within 30 Days?

Meredith Martin — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:35:47 +0000

In the last 6 months:

37% of SFDs (that sold) went pending within 30 days and those sales closed on average at 102.5% of list price
24% of Condos (that sold) went pending within 30 days and those sales closed on average at 99% of list price
16% of TICs (that sold) went pending within 30 days and those sales closed on average at 99% of list price
60% of REO SFDs (that sold) went pending within 30 days and those sales closed on average at 106.6% of list priceTo go pending within 30 days, typically a listing would ratify within 15 days of going on market.

A Years Worth of Solds vs Expired Listings

Meredith Martin — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 17:33:14 +0000

The following charts show the number of listings that expired (purple) to the number of Solds (green) for the past 12 month period. The spike in both Single Family Homes and Condos expired is for December 2008. In the Single Family Home market for every 10 sales there are 4 expired; for Condominiums there are 9 listings that expire to every 10 sold.

Market Update as of June 5th 2009

Meredith Martin — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:39:00 +0000

I read a lot of real estate blogs. I am always curious to see what other people are writing about and I can’t resist adding my 2 cents if I have an opinion on topic. I swear off a few of those blogs every couple of months when the comments and editorial get particularly vicious towards real estate agents, as they often do – then get sucked back in when there’s an interesting story I can’t resist.

What I’ve noticed is that both on the blogs, and in the press, the overall ‘mood’ seems to be that we’ve hit a bottom of sorts. I wrote a post back in March titled ‘Signs of a Real Estate Rebound’ about a CBS report on the multiple offers that were happening in the low end of the market, and you would have thought the title was ‘OMG YOU’RE ABOUT TO LOSE OUT ON YOUR ONLY OPPPORTUNITY TO BUY EVER’. Nowadays the venom when people are suggesting we are at a bottom is far less vicious although that opinion is definitely still present.

You will always get the side who vehemently insists there is more pain to go through, and there are certainly numerous statistical analysis, and intelligently written articles to make that case. My personal opinion is that prices and the economy as a whole are far more emotional in nature, and that consumer confidence, more than most anything determines whether the market is going either up or down. Right now confidence is up, I’m not certain it still will be this fall, but at the moment we seem to be headed in the right direction – and that is reflected both in the press, and in the subtle changes we’ve been seeing in real estate sales as a whole. I would say on record, I’m not really a bull or a bear, and that as always buying real estate is a personal decision. What is going to be the right choice for one is not going to be for another.

That being said let’s take a look at some of the most recent numbers.

Hotsheet Statistics for the past 2 weeks:

New Listings: 339 (down from 370 from the 2-week period ending May 1st, a not unusual reduction as spring moves into summer)
Back on Market: 78 – 20% of all properties going contingent sale or pending sale are coming back on market
Price Reductions: 252 – the number of price reductions is still very high – for every property that sold, 1.6 properties reduced their prices
Went Contingent Sale: 198 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Went Pending Sale: 193 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold: 157 (basically unchanged from 1 month ago, but a significant increase over previous months)
Sold REO: 13 – 8.5% of home sales were REO sales (Note: there are currently 95 REO sales contingent or pending sale.)
Expired/Withdrawn: 163 (a bit lower than one month ago)

The overview, as of today June 5th 2009, is that market activity has continued to get stronger over the past month, continuing a trend that began in March/April. Median prices of those properties that have accepted offers have increased, which suggests that values are stabilizing. The number of properties that have accepted offers but not yet closed are up in every category and inventory levels of Active properties (available for purchase) is down, slightly. This is all compared to the data collected as of May 1st 2009.

Signs of a Real Estate Recovery [SFHomeBlog]

Current Trends in San Francisco Real Estate 3.2.09 [SFHomeBlog]

Signs Of Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco [CBS5.com]

If Case-Shiller March Figures were accurate…

Meredith Martin — Wed, 27 May 2009 22:10:00 +0000

I know, I’ve been on this rant before … but every year or so, I just have to vent again. Mostly because I get tired of hearing one of my very good friends and/or highly intelligent financial advisors my clients are working with quote the index … ‘According to the Case-Schiller index prices are down over 40% in SF.’

Case-Schiller, oft touted as being the most unbiased, thereby accurate measurement of home prices is an index that started 21 years ago. There are no data points prior to 1988. It uses the year 2000 as it’s base-line and tracks the same single family homes that have re-sold. According to the Case-Shiller index for March 2009 home prices in San Francisco are down 46.1% from their peak in 2006.

Which means, if you are going to rely on those numbers literally, according to the Case-Schiller index, a Single Family Home that sold for $1,000,000 in San Francisco in 2006, was as of March 2009 selling for $539,000.

Now go find that sale!

Case-Shiller March 2009 Press Release [Standard & Poor's]

Here goes my Pet Peeve again the Case-Shiller Index [SFHomeBlog]

Current Trends in San Francisco Real Estate – April Edition

Meredith Martin — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 19:11:00 +0000

At current market trends, over the next month:*

- 1400 active house & condo listings will be joined by 600 new listings.
- 1 in 7 or 8 of those listings will accept an offer to purchase.
- 1 in 8 will expire or be withdrawn from the market (didn’t sell).
- 1 in 4 will reduce its asking price.
- 75 active bank-owned (REO) homes will be joined by 45 new REO listings:
- 1 in 3 will accept offers.

Of the listings that do accept offers, 1 in 3 or 4 will come back on market because the purchase fell through — typically due to financing difficulties, property condition issues or buyer remorse.

Of the house and condo listings that SOLD in the first 2.5 months of 2009:**

- 1 in 4 accepted offers within about 15 days of going on market, i.e. almost immediately. Of these, the houses averaged a sales price of about 1% over asking price, while condos averaged about 4% below asking.
- Those accepting offers after 45 to 75 days on market sold at an average of 3% to 4% below last asking price and 7% to 10% below original list price.
- Those accepting offers after 105 days on market sold, on average, 4% to 5% below last asking price and 14% to 18% below original price.

No matter how long a home was for sale, it still sold, on average, within 3% to 5% of the last asking price, even as — with price reductions — the discount off the original price grew significantly larger as time passed. The vast majority of buyers and buyers’ agents will NOT make an offer until they perceive the property’s asking price to be within 5% of “market value” (i.e. what they’re willing to pay).

*All numbers are approximate; neither TIC sales nor non-MLS new-development sales are included.
** For SF house and condo sales reported to MLS by 3/17/09. City districts with high foreclosure rates, as well as confidential sales and ultra high-end sales were excluded to avoid distorting general market statistics.

Current Trends in SF Real Estate 3.2.09 [SFHomeBlog]