Released for Sale - Infinity Tower II Residences

Interested in buying in one of San Francisco's exclusive developments- the Infinity?

Well, after great success from the Infinity’s, first phase, Tower I. Developers decided to open the gates to buyers for the second phase, Tower II, April of last year, and are having the same sort of response. The tower features 285 new condominium residences designed by famed architect Bernardo Fort-Brescia. Competitive prices started in the mid $500,000’s, and San Francisco buyers have scooped them up. As of now only 9 units remain. Three-2 bedrooms/2 baths, and Six- 3 bedrooms/2 baths.

Rising 42 stories, Tower II offers unparalleled views of the San Francisco Bay and city. Tower II features modern one, two and three-bedroom homes — including four penthouses and six two-story homes. Located just one block from the Embarcadero waterfront in the vibrant SoMA neighborhood, the Infinity is in the heart of it all.

FORBES- Top 10 Cities to Go From Renting to Buying

In these metro areas, now is a good time to make the jump to homeownership.
The U.S. government has pushed hard to make homeowners out of one-third of Americans who still rent their homes. It introduced and later extended a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and has kept federal interest rates at their lowest levels since the 1940s.

Market conditions are such that now is a particularly good time for some renters to take the hint.

In Portland, San Francisco, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C., the premium to buy--the spread between what you'd spend on renting and what you'd pay each month for a mortgage--is far narrower now than its 15-year average. And economists predict a significant home-price hike in five years. So upgrading will cost much less than usual, and home buyers are likely to get a good return on their investment.

Note that buying isn't necessarily cheaper than renting in these metro areas. In fact, it often remains a more expensive proposition. But for those determined to own, that investment is a better one now than it normally is.

Take San Francisco. To live here has always required a hefty bump in monthly costs from renting; it's normally an incredible 296% more expensive to buy than lease a home, and the city's residents know this. That's why 42% of them stick to renting. Even though in the third quarter of 2009 the premium was still in the triple digits--233%--it had shrunk by 63 percentage points from the above 15-year average. As with the other cities we've highlighted, you're not getting nearly as good a deal by renting as you might have just a few years ago.
"Rents are falling, but not nearly as rapidly as home prices," says Ron Witten, founder of Dallas-based Witten Advisors, an apartment market consulting firm. "Part of the reason is a shift away from home ownership toward renting," he says, in part because mortgages have become harder for many to obtain.


Behind the Numbers
To find cities where it's a good time to go from renting to buying, we used data from Witten Advisors, which calculated the premium to buy for 42 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the country using data from the U.S. Census, the National Association of Realtors and a blended average of fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (which oversees and regulates lenders). We compared the premium in the third quarter of 2009 with the average premium over the last 15 years to find the biggest drops.

We also wanted to pinpoint markets where home buying is a smart investment, so we factored in the five-year forecast in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index from Moody's ( MCO - news - people )Economy.com. The cities on our list have some of the biggest discounts on the premium to buy coupled with big projected increases in home prices over the next five years.

One major market we didn't look at is New York City, another spot where rents have softened less than home prices. Witten Advisors doesn't track the metro area because accurate historical data on rental costs there is exceedingly difficult to obtain.

Quality of Life, at a Discount
Portland, Ore., makes our list for much the same reason that San Francisco does: It's a picturesque, culture-driven city with good local services and amenities. The city is still not particularly cheap for buyers--but it's cheaper than normal.

A family hoping to put down roots there would normally pay a 62% premium to go from renting to buying. In the third quarter of 2009, however, that premium shrank by 16 percentage points. At the same time, Moody's Economy.com anticipates that home prices will jump 19% over the next five years. That's partly because, like San Francisco, Portland has strict government limitations on building and a coastal location that keep sprawl in check.

"Portland has one of the most controlled environments in the country in terms of development rights," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. "Those supply constraints will push prices up."

Jobs Stability
The presence of jobs--along with strong industries that will keep generating new ones--is a big factor in keeping demand for homes, and therefore home prices, high. The weak national economy has helped reduce the premium to buy for the time being, but where the labor market is relatively healthy, home prices are predicted to shoot up.

In Minneapolis, for example, where large companies including Target and General Mills have their corporate headquarters (and there's a large university system), home buyers will only pay 14% more than if they were renting (24 percentage points lower than average), and home prices should climb by 15% in five years.

Similarly, in Washington, D.C., government jobs are plentiful, and anticipated to stay that way. The 6.1% unemployment rate here is well below the national average, which is partly why Moody's anticipates a five-year jump in home prices of 15%. And, at the moment, the premium to buy is 20 percentage points lower than its usual 57%.

Of course, whether buying or renting is best is ultimately an individual choice, and one driven by a lot more than map coordinates. When subprime lending was rampant, many without the means to buy were encouraged to do so anyway--and it's no secret how that turned out.

"If there's anything we should have learned from this housing cycle, it's that the decision to buy or rent ought to be a personal lifestyle decision," says Witten. "In part, it's a question about, 'Do I want to be a homeowner' in general, and specifically, 'Do I want to be a homeowner now, with this economic uncertainty?'"

[Frobes.com, Francesca Levy]

Current SF Values off Peak Values - 4th Edition

Neighborhood or District	Property Type Price Range	Avg $/sq.ft. at Peak Value		5/1/09 – 10/30/09	Change from 4/1/09	Today
Bayview*	House $300k – 800k	$507/sq.ft.		$280/sq.ft.	- 5%	- 45%
Ingleside/ Hghts / Oceanview*	House $400k – 800k	$580		$444	- 1%	- 23%
Excelsior/Portola*	House $400k - 800k	$600		$450	- 1.5%	- 25%
Central/Outer Richmond **	House $700k – 1.4m	$569		$488	---	- 14%
Inner Mission**	Condo $500k - $800k	$621		$496	---	- 20%
Central/ Outer Sunset**	House $500k – 900k	$626		$501	- 6%	- 20%
Miraloma/ Sunnyside**	House $500k – 1m	$677		$550	- 8%	- 19%
Hayes Valley/Alamo/Nopa***	Condo $500k – 900k	$684		$559	- 7%	- 18%
SOMA**	Condo $500k – 900k	$689		$562	+ 2%	- 18%
Bernal Hghts***	House $500k – 1m	$651/sq.ft.		$567/sq.ft.	+ 2%	- 13%
St Francis Wd/W. Portal/Forest H **	House $800k – 2.5m	$687		$585	---	- 15%
Noe & Eureka Valley's***	Condo $500k – 1m	$751		$613	- 9%	- 18%
South Beach***	Condo $500k – 1m	$785		$640	- 6%	- 18%
Potrero Hill**	House $700k – 1.4m	$753		$648	---	- 14%
Russian/Nob/ Telegraph Hills***	Condo $600k – 1.2m	$798		$692	---	- 13%
Noe & Eureka Valley's***	House $800k – 1.5m	$891		$707	- 6%	- 21%
Pacific Hghts/ Marina (Dist 7)***	Condo $600k – 1.2m	$809		$733	- 4%	- 9%
Most Expensive North SF Areas***	House $1.5m - $4m	$975		$797	---	- 18%

Key to Estimated Peak-Value Period for the Chart Below:
*Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/06 – 6/30/06
**Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/07 – 6/30/07
***Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/08 – 6/30/08

Revised: Peak Values vs. Current SF Prices [SFHomeBlog]
Peak Value vs Current SF Value Feb 2009 [SFHomeBlog]

Wanna buy a House in SF $500,000 - $649,000?

There are a few things you should know.

1. It's competitive. I have clients in contract for a SFH (single family home) in Parkside right now. We were the winning bid out of 9 offers - some of which were all cash offers.

2. Be prepared for some expensive repairs either immediately or within a year or two. Homes in this price range generally suffer from some form of deferred maintenance. The home I helped my clients purchase had a $36,000 pest report - which is not uncommon. The expense in this case was caused by rotten wooden stairs (patios, decks and wooden stairs covered by plaster are by far the most common reason for pest reports of this amount).

3. It REALLY helps to have a good agent. I know I know, annoying plug for the industry only it's true. Having a good agent can mean the difference between making 15 offers, only to lose out on all, and only having to make a couple (if there are nine offers on a property chances are one or two of those that wrote had good agents and still lost out).

A good agent with a good reputation in the business can be the difference between getting an offer or not. Think of it this way, if you are a listing agent in a competitive situation and have three offers, all similar terms and pricing (assuming you know you are at the highest price the market will bear); you are going to counsel your client to pick the offer with an agent who has a reputation for getting things done on time, without drama, and without messing around with you and your clients after you are in contract with them.

Which means: good buyer's agents with a great reputation are adept at qualifying their own clients as well as educating them properly about the neighborhood, local laws, what to expect and what is going to be expected of them during the escrow process, developing a rapport with the listing agent, all prior to the time they've made that offer that is sitting in front of you. And if you're a listing agent with a number of offers to sort through, it becomes apparent within moments who has their act together and who doesn't.

Which also means, asking your cousin who just happens to be an agent, and lives and works in Southern California, to write up your offer, is not really going to help you in the long run (and if your cousin is a good agent - they will be the first to tell you that).

Summer's coming to a Close - Fall Selling Season about to Begin

And so is my hiatus from updating the blog. The time off has been spent wisely as we here at SFHomeBlog have been upgrading the site to a more user friendly interface, while still maintaining our sans advertisement policy.

In the meantime here are a few facts pulled from the 2009 California Association of Realtor Buyer's Survey's that I found of interest:

· On a scale of 1 to 10, 59% of all buyers rated the difficulty of getting a loan as 9 or higher.
· Main reason for dissatisfaction with agent: “did not negotiate aggressively” (83%)
· Why buyers were satisfied with their agents: quick to respond, negotiated a good deal, worked hard on my behalf, listened to what we needed
· 38% of recent home buyers were first time buyers (doubled from previous year)
· Only 37% of escrows closed on time!
· Average time spent considering a purchase, looking around, searching with an agent: over 25 weeks
· Only 13% of home buyers looked at a RE newspaper or magazine ad; 84% used the Internet

That last fact is the primary reason you are seeing less and less advertisements in the Open Home section of the Chronicle...almost all open house times and details can be found at www.SFOpenHomes.com now. It's also the primary reason you'll be seeing riders all over the city pointing buyers to that web site and less and less agents making the choice to spend their marketing budget on expensive and inefficient print advertising. Now if we could just insist that all agents (and you know who you are out of area agents that dont put photo's in) reinvest in high quality photography ...

Open Homes Listings in San Francisco [SFOpenHome.com]

Prices over the Years: 2 Bedroom Tenancies-in-Common

2 Bedroom Tenancies-in-Common

Click on graph

The periods in which both the lowest and highest number of sales occurred in each area are noted. When the number of sales is very low, statistical analysis is generally not meaningful.

The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, such as a market shift to lower-end home sales (such as is happening today -- to a large degree due to the current difficulty in financing the purchase of more expensive homes, and for houses, due to the significant increase in foreclosure sales in some neighborhoods).

Prices Over the Years: Appreciation & Depreciation in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

3 Bedroom Houses*

Click on Graph

* For St. Francis Woods, both 3 and 4 bedroom houses are included in the analysis to achieve a statistically meaningful number of sales.

** With so few sales in these areas during this period, the median price is not statistically meaningful.

The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, such as a market shift to lower-end home sales (such as is happening today -- to a large degree due to the current difficulty in financing the purchase of more expensive homes, and for houses, due to the significant increase in foreclosure sales in some neighborhoods).

Changes in median price do not necessarily reflect changes in value for any particular property.

Different neighborhoods may feature larger or smaller 3-BR houses and 2-BR condos on a square footage basis, as well as radically different eras of construction. Some neighborhoods have a much greater quantity of sales or may be impacted by large new-development sales. The data herein is from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and subject to errors, omissions or revisions and not warranted.

Revised: Peak Values vs Current SF prices - Single Family Homes

Below, median and average sales prices and average dollars per square foot are given for the last 6 months of sales, and then the percentage change is calculated as compared to the first half of 2007. To get a sense of changes in value, it’s often best to come at the subject from a variety of ways, and then compare. To make it more complicated, sometimes the analyses seem to point to different conclusions – which one must compare, juggle and balance as best one can. Sometimes the results are simply abnormal due to unusual events that occurred within one of the comparison periods.
In the charts below, current values are based upon sales occurring after 10/12/08, reported through 4/10/09.

Peak values: Generally, the first half of 2007, before the subprime crisis started to break big time, is considered to be the home-value peak for the city – and that is the period used for comparison below. But some of areas of the city actually peaked in 2006, while others – generally the most affluent neighborhoods – peaked in the first half of 2008. For those areas that peaked earlier or later, the declines from peak values are higher than shown below.

All House Sales of Every Size
Note: District sales statistics, in particular, are generalities since neighborhoods of differing values are averaged together.

4 Bedroom Houses

3 Bedroom Houses

2 Bedroom Houses

The above statistics probably understate the decline in values as of today, for three reasons:

1. In a declining market, sales data – which typically shows up 30 to 45 days after acceptance of offers – will always be a step behind current activity, i.e. offers being accepted right now. Also, this analysis averages sales for the entire 6 month period – and it is generally accepted that the market has declined somewhat since mid-October.

2. The market has shifted to smaller, less expensive homes. All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher dollar per square foot value than a larger one, therefore skewing current values higher than they ought to be in an apples-to-apples comparison. (This applies particularly to the analyses of homes “of all sizes.”)

3. In a sellers’ market, virtually everything sells, but in a buyers’ market, typically just the best homes sell – best appearing, best condition, overall best value as perceived by a willing and able buyer. Thus statistics for the current period apply to “best-value homes” while those for 2007 apply to homes of a much wider range of quality. This also skews the apples-to-apples comparison.

Definitions:
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, or exterior spaces (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. All things being equal a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo, a condo higher than a TIC, and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building. All things being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sq.ft. In SF, the highest numbers—over $1500/sqft—are typically achieved by relatively small penthouse condos, with staggering views, in very prestigious buildings.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by unusual events or by changes in buying trends. Median prices do not necessarily reflect the value or changes in value for any particular home.

Average Sales Price is the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Especially when sales quantities are small, averages can be easily distorted by one or two sales abnormally higher or lower than common for an area.

Peak Value Vs Current SF Value Feb 2009 [SFHomeBlog]

Last 2 Weeks of San Fransisco Real Estate

The last 2 weeks had the highest number of listings going contingent or pending since September 2008 indicating a significant pick up in the number of listings accepting offers.

New Listings: 370 – up from 315
Back-on-Market: 74 – up from 64
Price Reductions: 221 – up from 207 -- (65% of price reductions are for condos)
Went Contingent: 200-up from 171
Went Pending: 191 – up from 164
Sold: 153 – up from 104

Sold REO: 14 – up from 9
Expired/Withdrawn: 174 – up from 131



The number of active listings is staying stable, while the number accepting offers is rising. The median list price of homes accepting offers continues to be relatively stable, even rising a little for SFDs, TICs and 2-4 units. The average days on market for properties accepting offers is high, especially for TICs and condos. There continues to be a large difference between the median list price of all active listings and the median list price of those accepting offers, continued proof that the upper-end home market has been hit particularly hard since September 15th, 2008.