At last, the promised new inventory has arrived. While we generally see a spike in listings during one of our two selling seasons — spring and fall — the past several years have been dismal in terms of turning out new listings. Not so this year.
The question is: Will that translate into any relief for buyers?
I recently attended a symposium on the state of housing in San Francisco. If you have a couple of hours to kill, you can find the entire panel discussion audio here. While I found the discussion fascinating (it is my job after all) there are a couple of stats that particularly caught my attention:
- Since 2010, we’ve added 10,000 residents to San Francisco every year, increasing our population by 50,000
- During that same time frame, 80,000 new jobs have been created and only 10,000 new housing units have been added, well over 70% of which are rentals
- According to Ted Egan, San Francisco’s Chief Economist, each year 70,000 people move into San Francisco (which means 60,000 move out)
- Wholesale new construction costs are currently running $950-$1000/square-foot in San Francisco, which drops by only $50-$100/square-foot in Oakland; sale prices in the East Bay continue to garner significantly less than San Francisco
I have certainly spoken to more than one agent recently who had offer dates come and go, or only had one party come to the table. My personal take continues to be this: Fall is a really good window to buy, and I’m advising my sellers hold off until spring to list their property for sale (situation and replacement property depending). That said, I am actively looking to work with more buyers this fall — If you know someone interested in buying please pass my name along. I’ll be happy to speak with them even if they’re not sure yet.