Posts Tagged ‘rent’

San Francisco Market Overview: September 2015

 

September is historically the month San Francisco sees the greatest number of new listings come on the market, and this year it hasn’t disappointed! Since the 1st of the month, more than 800 single-family homes and condos have hit the market, blowing last year’s count out of the water. Further sweetening the situation for prospective home buyers, there are more condos for sale now than any time in the past two years and the most sub-million dollar single-family homes we’ve seen all year.

While median prices for both property types have remained consistently above $1,000,000 for the past seven months, the month-over-month rate of appreciation has cooled recently leading some economists to believe the market is leveling off. Still, there are plenty of buyers out there and the key to home values will continue to be the pace of job growth. On that note, employment is at a record high in San Francisco, and the East Bay (where many people priced out of SF are already putting increasing pressure on the housing market) is in for some major job growth in the coming months, years and decades.

Uber’s recent purchase of the former Sears building in downtown Oakland could prove a huge boon for the city. Aside from the estimated 600 new residents it will bring to the East Bay, it could open the floodgates for startups to establish headquarters in the area. Additionally, Berkeley has a billion-dollar real estate pipeline — one of the largest building booms in its 147-year history — that’ll bring jobs and residents to the area over the next 40 years. If conventional wisdom is correct, the real estate market in the East Bay will be heating up — way up!

A recent study by rental website Zumper found that for every $1 billion in venture capital injected into a local economy, 1-bedroom rents will increase $69 per month, and 2-bedroom rents will increase $99 per month. In San Francisco, $1,069 or 33% of a median 1-bedroom rent can be attributed to this stimulation. As housing prices accelerate around the Bay Area, it should become increasing clear that the housing crunch is a regional issue rather than a strictly San Francisco one, and the solution to it will be best achieved in a coordinated effort.

 

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Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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To Buy or to Rent: That is the Question

top-10-one-bedroom-rents-in-september-2015

Unless you are fortunate to live in a rent controlled building, you may have noticed your monthly rent rise dramatically in recent years. Checking in at $3,530 per month, the median rent for a one-bedroom has been the highest in the country for six months following a 13.5% rise last year (and up as much as 29.2% in Noe Valley). For many renters, what they pay out every month could easily be a mortgage payment on a comparable place– the monthly Principal + Interest on a $1,000,000 home is $3819.32, assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage fixed at 4%. As of today, there is more than 330 single-family homes and condos/TICs/lofts that are Active on the MLS listed for under $1,000,000.

Plugging in local San Francisco data (August 2015 sales figures) to the New York Times’ Rent vs. Buy calculator reveals some compelling numbers. Buying a condominium at August 2015’s $1,045,000 median sale price or a single-family home at the $1,225,444,000 median is a better financial decision even if you could rent for free!

 

San Francisco condominium Rent vs. Buy results:

condo

San Francisco single-family home Rent vs. Buy results:

home

 

The assumptions I made in the above calculations are as follows:

  • Purchase price: $1,045,000 for condos, $1,225,444 for single-family homes
  • Length of time in home: 5 years
  • Mortgage Rate: 4%
  • Down payment: 20%
  • Length of Mortgage: 30 years
  • Home price growth rate: 13.3% for condos, 20.0% for single-family homes (12-month average, the NYT calculator maxes out at 15%)
  • Rent growth rate: 13.5% (median one-bedroom increase in 2014)
  • Investment rate of return: 7% (approx. long-term average annual ROI of stocks)
  • Inflation Rate: 2%
  • Property tax rate: 1.19%
  • Marginal tax rate: 28%
  • Taxes filed on a Joint Return
  • Costs of buying a home: 3% (approx. closing costs)
  • Costs of selling a home: 8% (approx. closing costs + marketing + customary 5% commission to brokers)
  • Maintenance/renovation: 1%
  • Homeowner’s insurance: 0.1% (approx. $50-$100+ per month depending on property type)
  • Monthly utilities: $100
  • Monthly common fees: $600 for condos, $0 for single-family homes
  • Common fees deduction: 0%
  • Security Deposit: 1 month
  • Broker’s fee: 0%
  • Renter’s Insurance: 0.1%

 

San Francisco condominium median price growth, 2005 to present:

San Francisco single-family home median price growth, 2005 to present:

 

Are you getting my monthly San Francisco newsletter? You can subscribe here.

Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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To Buy or to Rent: That is the Question

I was recently introduced to an international all-cash home buyer who had come to San Francisco for one week on a mission to find housing for his two young adult children. Initially looking at rentals in the Infinity, Ritz Carlton and AVA Nob Hill in addition to some properties on Nob Hill and Russian Hill, it wasn’t long before I was asked the question: Does it make more sense to buy a place?

top-10-one-bedroom-rents-in-july-2015

Unless you are fortunate to live in a rent controlled building, you may have noticed your monthly rent rise dramatically in recent years. Since July 2014, the annual growth rate of rents has in fact outpaced that of home prices in San Francisco. Checking in at $3,500 per month, the median rent for a one-bedroom has been the highest in the country for four months following a 13.5% rise last year (and up as much as 29.2% in Noe Valley). For many renters, what they pay out every month could easily be a mortgage payment on a comparable place– the monthly Principal + Interest on a $1,000,000 home is $3819.32, assuming 20% down and a 30-year mortgage fixed at 4%. Now consider that nearly half the properties for sale right now are listed for under $1,000,000.

Plugging in local San Francisco data (June 2015 sales figures) to the New York Times’ Rent vs. Buy calculator reveals some compelling numbers. Buying a condominium at June 2015’s $1,100,000 median sale price or a single-family home at the $1,301,000 median is a better financial decision even if you could rent for free!

 

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The assumptions I made in the above calculations are as follows:

  • Purchase price: $1,100,000 for condos, $1,301,000 for single-family homes
  • Length of time in home: 5 years
  • Mortgage Rate: 4%
  • Down payment: 20%
  • Length of Mortgage: 30 years
  • Home price growth rate: 14.3% for condos, 19.4% for single-family homes (12-month y-o-y average, the NYT calculator maxes out at 15%)
  • Rent growth rate: 13.5% (median one-bedroom increase in 2014)
  • Investment rate of return: 7% (approx. long-term average annual ROI of stocks)
  • Inflation Rate: 2%
  • Property tax rate: 1.19%
  • Marginal tax rate: 28%
  • Taxes filed on a Joint Return
  • Costs of buying a home: 3% (approx. closing costs)
  • Costs of selling a home: 8% (approx. closing costs + marketing + customary 5% commission to brokers)
  • Maintenance/renovation: 1%
  • Homeowner’s insurance: 0.1% (approx. $50-$100+ per month depending on property type)
  • Monthly utilities: $100
  • Monthly common fees: $600 for condos, $0 for single-family homes
  • Common fees deduction: 0%
  • Security Deposit: 1 month
  • Broker’s fee: 0%
  • Renter’s Insurance: 0.1%

Not a stranger to the costs involved in carrying a property (and the long-term wealth-building benefit of homeownership), my client weighed the trade-offs of buying in San Francisco vs. renting at a maximum $10,000 per month. And… drum roll, please… he found that buying was the better option for him!

San Francisco condominium median price growth, 2005 to present:

San Francisco single-family home median price growth, 2005 to present:

 

Meredith Martin is a Broker Associate at Paragon Real Estate Group and can be reached at Meredith@OpeningDoors.me

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To Tax or Not to Tax?

To Tax or Not to Tax?

Residential Real Estate in San Francisco is in high demand. The folks at AirBnB, a global community marketplace promoting the shared shot-term housing economy, have development a creative solution to opening the housing market and tackling the challenge of high-priced sleep. Yet at who’s expense?

           Starting in 2008, AirBnB opened a digital platform to introduce paying guests to home owners with spare rooms to rent. AirBnB spot checks both the 8.5 million guests and the 500,000 home owners or “hosts” now enlisted, prior to an invitation to participate in the exchange.  However is verifying an ID, building a user profile and confirming reviews enough to satisfy city officials?

           San Francisco Board of Supervisor’s President David Chiu and The Hotel Association claim AirBnB is not playing by the same rules and are dodging their fare share of state taxes. According to Patrick Hodge at The Bay Area Biz Journal, “Chiu noted that the occupancy tax issue was so important to hotel interests that it had united hotel management and union officials in calling for Airbnb users to be required to pay.” Offering a 14% discounted rate by leaving tax off the table, is an unarguable competitive advantage.

       However, CEO Brian Chesky views the position differently. In his blog Who we are, what we stand for, Chesky writes, “Airbnb is the new, old way to travel. Decades ago, travelers stayed in boarding homes, neighbors shared what they had, and ordinary people powered the economy. These activities are re-emerging through a new movement called the sharing economy, where everyone can participate.” An open dialogue between two different sides of the street sparks the contrast between public and private interest.

           The looming AirBnB tax appears inevitable to keep the peace. Although under no hurry to provoke a ruling, the big question remains, will AirBnB eat the profit loss or pass along the increase to hosts or guests?

Weigh in and be heard.

                                                  

Rita Roti is a broker associate / assistant manager at Zephyr Real Estate and can be reached at Rita@ritaroti.com.

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